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Is the US passport office shortsighted; they don't see backlog issue will occur again in 10 years?


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They must be fools! Do they not see that passports have a 10 year expiration? And, that if you create a bubble of applications now.... hire a bunch of people... eventually you get through the bubble and let people go. But, in 10 years time, the bubble comes back again!

You'd think we could be a little smarter. For example, 2007 is male adults required to have passports. In 2008, female adults are required to have passports. In 2009, children are required to have passports (note: children have 5 year cycles so they'd come up again in 2014, remaining offcycle from the adult population). This puts the highest profile "risk" catagory for a typical terrorist first while still putting everyone through the process.

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While there will be a surge in demand, it won't be as big as it is now.

The Passport Office is adding permanent capacity increases since demand for passports will now always be higher than they were before WHTI, that will alleviate some of the problem

However, just because your passport will expire in 10 years doesn't mean you have to renew it... and many won't. Passports are expensive, and many folks won't bother to renew their passports 10 years from now if they aren't going to be doing traveling that requires them.

In addition, the PASSCards that are supposed to be implemented in the next 18 months for many border entry points will further relieve the burden on passport production. PASSCards will only be valid for certain types of crossings, and will replace the requirement for a passport at those crossings. This will further reduce the pressures on the passport agency.

Heck, there's even a movement in Congress right now to repeal the WHTI altogether which would completely eliminate the need for Americans traveling to/from Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Bermuda from needing a passport... Which is how it used to be...
Others
You're absolutely right, today's "bubble" is certain to come back up again in 10 years and we'll have to hire more "approvers" again, just as has been done this time around.

So, that's what we'll do...........so what? Good for the economy.

Your "staggering" solution is just that......."staggering"
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